The presidential election will take place in less than one month, with November 3rd only a mere twenty-five days away.
The anxiety and uncertainty are all around us, especially if you call yourself a citizen of the United States. However, the ramifications of the coming election will be felt all around the world.
At the moment, both the Democrats and Republicans are jockeying for position. The typical political games are being played in real time, as seen from the non-stop appearances in the MSM of political surrogates from both parties spewing their talking points and pushing their agendas.
However, there are a few things that are all but guaranteed at this point, regardless of which side is deemed the victor.
Political Violence Will be in Abundance
I take absolutely zero joy in this prediction.
Yet I see no alternative scenario unfolding in the coming months.
Political violence will hit a level within the United States we have not seen in decades, and that is saying a lot, considering the near non-stop riots and strife that have been unfolding in many major cities across the United States in the last half of the year, with Portland being one of the most serious examples.
Unfortunately, I believe this will be nothing compared to the coming dark days if one side or the other does not win in a complete and utter landslide.
The plethora of mail-in voting that is taking place within the United States due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has led to increased uncertainty and mistrust within the voting system, with many on the right speculating that "funny" business will almost certainly take place.
Meanwhile, conspiracy theorists on the left have attacked the U.S. Postal system, with many declaring that President Trump is attempting to sabotage the organization and thus throw the election into chaos.
More than likely, neither side is right. However, this does not change the fact that mail-in voting is notoriously flawed and has had very serious problems in the past, with improperly filled or filed voting ballots resulting in a large number of them being simply discarded.
What this is all leading to is one of the greatest enemies of the markets and democracy at large: extreme uncertainty, which will likely fuel the radical sides of both parties further in the coming months.
Many will feel “justified” in their violent actions due to this heightened level of uncertainty, whether it be through direct violence towards those they deem the enemy or simply through outright destruction of property while engaging, as the MSM likes to put it, "mostly peaceful protest".
This will send the financial markets spinning as the country attempts to resume stability, and hopefully cooler heads can prevail.
Extreme Money Printing is Coming
The next scenario that is all but guaranteed at this point is the fact that much, much more stimulus is coming after the election, regardless of who wins.
President Trump is pushing hard for a second wave of COVID-19 stimulus, amounting to approximately $1 Trillion USD.
This effort has been bogged down by the Democrats since rumors first began circulating that a second wave of stimulus was in the cards over six months ago, and they have cited a number of reasons for the delay.
However, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that passing a second stimulus bill and placing a fat check in people’s bank accounts weeks before an election is not in the Democrats’ best interest and would only help President Trump's chances of re-election.
"Buying" votes is a well-known tactic for politicians. However, the Democrats have mastered the art of easy money-printing above all others.
Still, this does not mean that no stimulus is coming if Joe Biden wins on November 3rd—in fact, quite the opposite.
Remember, Joe Biden is in much greater favor than President Trump of shutting down the economy and placing further restrictions on it in an effort to slow down the spread of COVID-19.
If this occurs, or even if it doesn't, then the Democrats will push for additional stimulus packages of their own, putting the printing presses in high gear, cranking out those digital fiat dollars.
(Chart source, goldprice.org)
(Chart source, Market Watch)
Likely this is one of the reasons why we are seeing a renewed weakness in the U.S. Dollar Index, as market participants can clearly see that much more money-printing is going to take place before this crisis is fully behind us.
Additionally, both gold and silver bullion have surged significantly higher as— according to many analysts and polls—the odds of Joe Biden winning the presidential election has increased in the past number of days.
Still, these polls and predictions should be taken with a grain of salt, as we all know what happened in 2016, when Hillary Clinton went into election night with a 98% chance of winning.
Regardless, the markets clearly believe that Joe Biden will be the "even easier money" president.
The coming days will be intense, scary, and incredibly interesting to watch unfold.
Even though the 2020 U.S. presidential campaign cycle will soon to come to a close, the ramifications of November 3rd will be felt well into 2021 and beyond.
Regardless of who wins, strife will occur, uncertainty will be in abundance, and fiat money-printing will continue in excess.
The moral of the story? Prepare accordingly, and above all else...